More and more we keep hearing about it. People are waiting. They believe it will happen—any day now. Necrology news always has a crowd; it is like watching a Formula One or Indy race with hopes that some spectacular crash will occur, with little interest in the race.

So the comparison with 2000 is out. Valuations are high again, money is being thrown left and right, companies are being funded without a business model… There’s arrogance, big corporate parties, and it’s difficult to find developers or just plain people. The recipe seems to have all the same ingredients.

But let’s be straightforward: It’s not going to happen again. I am not trying to be controversial. I just believe it.

What was called the “Bubble” in 2000 referred to public companies with ridiculous multiples of…. nothing… since some had zero revenues and were cash flow negative. The Bubble referred to investors who saw shares doubling at the start and were waiting for the price to triple or quadruple. Investment banks were already out of their investment and had already materialized their profit (on top fees for orchestrating the IPO). So VCs pushed their fresh investments right to the door of the investment bank which pushed then right to the hands of hungry individual investors. A pump with no water burns.

This was the past.

The regulatory environment has changed. IPOs in the high tech world are now scared and much more transparent. Many try, but feel the market and withdraw. So where is the risk now? In the hands of the VCs, professional investors. They have guidance and ratios. They have an accepted rate of losses. Some truly believe in Web 2.0. It makes of lot of sense. It is a lower investment in the first round, with a good deal on the valuation.

And if 8 out of 10 companies they fund fail, chances are they will still make money on the 2 that succeed and that will more than offset any losses and bring an overall healthy return. So the Bubble will not burst again. Only the jewels will go public. Others will be sold to large corporations. But again, only to savvy companies who perform due diligence and have a strategy behind the acquisition. So we are safe here.

Many startups will die, but many strong Web 2.0 companies will emerge and last. Ziki should be one of them.